Posts Tagged ‘enrollment projections’

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Moving students out of Franklin Elementary School in Franklin Park to relieve crowding will be a challenge, North Allegheny School District administrators have told board members.

Most of the Franklin students live very close to the school, Roger Botti, supervisor of transportation and operations, told the board at its Oct. 23 meeting.

That means that many of them would have to travel farther to school than they do now, he said.

To read more, click here.

Related Posts:

Redistricting and Projections October 25, 2013

Erroneous Enrollment Projections May 15, 2013

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The recommendation to close a building is based on a projected decline in elementary enrollment. However, based on the district’s records, the administration’s 5-year enrollment projections have understated actual enrollment by several hundred students.

The large discrepancy in projected enrollment v. actual enrollment for the last 3 years is a clear reason why no building in the district should be closed.

This information was obtained under the Right-to-Know Law:

May 15 Chart final

2010- 2011 Projected elementary enrollment = 3281

Projected 2010-2011 enrollment

2010-2011 Actual elementary enrollment =3526

actual 10-11

2011-2012 Projected elementary enrollment = 3275

projected 2011-2012 enrollment

2011-2012 Actual elementary enrollment = 3574

Actual 2011-2012 enrollment

2012-2013 Projected elementary enrollment = 3188

projected 2012-2013 enrollment

2012-2013 Actual elementary enrollment = 3531

Actual 2012-2013 enrollment

As presented to North Allegheny School District Board of School Directors on November 28, 2012.

[click here] Community Report 1

Based on current enrollment, closing a building would require the remaining buildings to operate at capacities that limit the district’s ability to manage class size and make the system dependent on spare classrooms.  Under the new model, spare classrooms would be used as regular classrooms and “other spares,” such as faculty lounges and open group instructional spaces, would become potential classrooms.  The rooms identified as “other spares” under the new model are not as conducive to learning as a regular classroom setting and displace programs integral to the elementary curriculum.  This compromises the district’s ability to deliver excellence in education and equity across all schools.

The decision to close a school is contingent on a decline in student enrollment and relies on projections made in the Phase 2 Demographics and Feasibility Study (Phase 2 report) and projections made by the administration.  The administration has a 13-year history of forecasting enrollment several hundred students below actual enrollment.  The enrollment projections in the Phase 2 report are below the forecasts provided by the administration, the data used for population projections does not tie to governmental records, and there is a mathematical error in the demographic study that has a significant impact on conclusions related to future growth.  Thus, both sources the district is relying on with respect to a decline in enrollment raise concern with respect to the accuracy of such projections.  If current enrollment goes up, the district cannot reasonably accommodate additional students and faces spending more money than it saved from closing a building.

This report summarizes our concerns, observations, and evaluations in regards to the district’s ability to reasonably accommodate all elementary students in the remaining buildings without compromising the district’s successful elementary education model and curriculum.

  1. Introduction
  2. Building utilization under a new elementary education model
  3. Reliance on declining enrollment projections
  4. Additional Concerns
  5. Conclusion